Normalcy Bias

Normalcy Bias is about considering the possibility of negative outcomes. This bias causes people to underestimate both the likelihood of a negative outcome and its possible effects because they believe that things will pretty much always function the way they have. This may result in situations where people fail to adequately prepare themselves for negative outcomes and then are confused, frustrated or saddened by the instance happening.

A useful counter-measure is to create a scenario where the thing that is unlikely to happen, actually happens. Then, assess as rationally as possible, using whatever data points available, the probability of that outcome happening.

For a full list of the most common biases, click here.